Analysis of Obama's Nobel Peace Prize

Since this blog is about my Life's inspirations, (not only sport), I thought it would be ok to share with you my analysis of

Obama's early nomination to the Nobel Peace prize on October 9th which struck me as a surprise. I warn you that I am a supporter of Obama, however, I tried to remain balanced in my analysis of this event, which, to say the least is a controversial one.

1] Was it politically motivated?

Definitely yes, but not in the sense of Republican versus Democrats which is largely irrelevant on the world stage. In the history of the Nobel prize, as many Republicans as Democrats received it. However, it sends out a powerful message to support Obama's agenda towards peace. A message of hope and openness towards old adversaries, to repair the fracture between the Muslim world and the West, to fight global warming, further dialogues between Palestine and Israel, and prevent nuclear holocaust. In my mind, it is no coincidence if this Award will be given to Obama in Sweden on Dec 10, when the Global Summit on Climate Change conclusions will be reached in Coppenhagen between December 7 and December 18th... My bet is Obama will fly to both.

2] Does it reward Obama's accomplishments over the last 9 months?

Deinitely yes. Obama's symbolic achievements have been enormous. Who could have imagined that a black US President would be elected, sit in Cairo, praising the value of Islam and offering peace to the middle east after 9/11 and 8 years of Bush's bully foreign policies with the prospect of a scary religious confrontation between 2 billion Muslims and 2 billion Christians? We should not underestimate the power of words. Leaders have more influence (positive or negative) through speeches that through acts in the short term, because their message gets amplified and repeated in the media shaping our consciousness and behaviors. Acts are harder because they need to be executed via many governments bodies which suffer from inertia (see the recent counter productive role of the US negotiators in the Global Climate Change). Some contend that speeches have no impact in international politics, if they are not followed by acts, which in the long run must be true. However, a vision must be set by Leaders for acts to follow.

3) Was it deserved? Was the timing right?

The Nobel Peace prize does not only recognize concrete achievements, it also recognize efforts towards making the world a better place. For instance, the Burma 1991 Nobel peace prize, Aung San Suu Kyi, has not freed her country from its dictatorship yet. However, she has set a path for her citizen towards democracy and national reconciliation. When Bangladeshi economist Muhammad Yunus and his Grameen Bank received in 2006 the Nobel Peace prize, it is not because they put an end to poverty. It is because they gave hope and a better life to millions of people via access through micro credit. Obama gave hope to billions of people around the world, that we could go beyond our differences, respect each others and find peace, without giving up on our values or appearing to be weak. This vision has started a chain of events towards finding solutions to several conflicts on the Global stage, be it the nuclear arm race, global warming, Iran, or Israel-Palestine conflict by re-engaging the US Administration as a player in the concert of nations. Although it will take time to bear fruits and more effort that just the US President star power to solve the most intricate ones, in that sense, it was deserved. The question of timing remains, but giving it in 2010 is definitely better than giving it in 2011 for two reasons. 1 It puts some pressure now on the US Administration to deliver on its promises. 2 It avoids to mingle with US politics a year before the 2012 election.

4) What is the impact of this award?

This is the $1.4 million dollar question. (the reward amount, which, by the way, will be given to charity).

1 - World stage

(+) It makes Obama even more into a symbolic moral authority figure, a tough act to follow when you manage the first power in the world. It puts the US back on its leadership course, as a beacon of Democracy. It maximize Obama's star power and influence over other leaders and his own administration. The US international policy, led by somebody of the caliber of Hillary Clinton (whether we like her or not, we must recognize her leadership, intelligence and sheer determination) will be in the best position to convince other world leaders to be on the right site of history instead of following their petty short term interests (thinking of the Israel / Palestine conflict for instance). You can already see some of that in the signing of the peace agreement between Armenia and Turkey which just happened this w-e in Zurich, just a few blocks from my home at the ETH University not least without the influence of Obama and the hard work of Hillary. I also think this will have an impact on the US Aministration on Global Climate Change esp. if Obama goes to Copenhaguen in December after receiving his prize.

(-) On the other hand, it might tie his hands and put in an odd spot. How he is going to deal with the Talibans in Afghanistan? Can he send more troups there if this is the right thing to do? I am not an expert on this very complex part of the world and do not know if there is a solution to the complex equation between the Talibans, Al-Quaeda, Pakistan, India, and maybe corrupt? Afghan Political leaders. How can he react with Israel who has a history of ignoring the freezing of the settlements in Palestine despite repeat requests from Clinton, Bush and Obama? The situation in Irak? Having the Nobel Peace prize is not a guarantee for success, but at least some of the ingredients for the recipe are there. If Israel passes on this historic peace opportunity, I do not know if it deserves long term to be supported (military and economically speaking) by the West anymore because it would become a major reason (Iran being the other one) for the instability in the Middle East. Last but not least, by upping the ante for Obama with a Nobel Prize, there is also a greater risk for disapointment if acts and success do not follow.

2- USA

I do not believe that this will have any significant impact on the vote in 2012 because my belief is that the average Joe in America doesn t care about the Nobel Peace Prize, but will judge Obama solely based on his economic records at home. If any, this would have an influence on the Republican party to present a decent candidate and take the higher ground in politics instead of smear tactics, which is a good thing for the US Democracy. I praise John Mc Cain for saying: “we, as American are proud when the American President receives the Nobel Peace Prize”. As much as I support Obama, I believe the Republican party could win, if it presents a winning ticket in 2012 sticking to the best of the Conservative values. It will be interesting to see how hard core Republicans react to this nomination. For that, check out for the article in Conservapidia about Obama.

3 - Obama as a human being

It must feel good to see that your efforts are being noticed and that you have a coalition of the willing, out there to support you to make the world a better place. The risk for Obama is to bask in the glory of foreign politics and lose sight of internal politics and basic economics where his political survival is at stake. The other risk is to feel the pressure, lose patience and start making mistakes to push an unrealistic agenda for his own Administration to carry through. I hope Michelle and trusted advisors will help him to stay in touch with reality.

Conclusion:

I commend the Nobel Comity for their choice. It is a courageous and controversial one that will no doubt offer flank for criticism, although I believe that it will be justified in the long run. My intuition is that people fail to grasp we are dealing with a very troubled and complicated world in which we desperately need for inspiration. Democracy and Peace are not something we can take for granted. It is something to fight for. This is what the Nobel Peace Prize is about. Supporting inspirational people who carry an agenda for a more Peaceful world.

History will be the sole judge if the timing was right. 2010 will be the time to deliver some concrete results starting in Coppenhaguen on Global Warming in Dec. 2009. In any case, I admire Obama for his courage and pray that he is well protected and keep his famous cool under pressure. What an amazing man, and an amazing time for an amazing country.

I am proud to be an American.

Mathieu